P02-1

Yi-Ru Chen, CEE
Gap Acceptance Analysis for Lane Change Behaviors Using NGSIM Data
Advisor: Michael Zhang

Gap acceptance for lane change behaviors is an important component in microscopic traffic simulation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the gap acceptance of drivers on the freeway. Yi-Ru Chen used the data from the Federal Highway Administration’s Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) project database, which collected vehicle trajectories on a segment of Highway 101 in Los Angeles. An initial analysis of NGSIM data found that lane change behaviors vary by lane, with drivers in the farthest-left lane (with the highest speed traffic) preferring a longer lead gap and a shorter lag gap. The average lead gap also varies considerably between lanes; at some sections of the freeway there is a distinctive increase in average lead gap for the median lane in the transition to congested fl ow while there is no change or a slight reduction in that for other lanes. The NGSIM data also showed that congestion affects gap acceptance greatly.

P02-2

Kristin Lovejoy, TTP
Transportation Experiences of Recent Mexican Immigrants and The Response of Sacramento-Area Commuters to Demand Management Strategies in the I-5 Corridor
Advisors: Susan Handy and Patricia Mokhtarian

In the summer of 2006, Kristin Lovejoy helped conduct focus groups with 104 recent Mexican immigrants living in six different cities in California. Half came from households with no vehicles, while the other half owned at least one household vehicle. The focus groups provided a rich set of qualitative data on the nature of vehicle use by those with potentially limited vehicle access. During winter quarter 2008, Lovejoy compiled the findings into two articles submitted for publication. During summer quarter 2008, she assisted in the effort to evaluate changes in travel behavior during and after the closure of Interstate 5 in downtown Sacramento, during which commuters were encouraged to reduce vehicle trips and explore alternative modes. She helped develop an online survey administered to area commuters twice during and once after the completion of the construction project, and she aided in the preliminary analysis of survey results.

P02-3

Amine Mahmassani, TTP
Vehicle Choice Modeling Research
Advisor: David Bunch

Amine Mahmassani worked on a range of research tasks oriented toward making improvements to the reliability and capabilities of CARBITS, a microsimulation forecasting model for the passenger vehicle market in California originally developed by Professor David Bunch in 2003–2004. The model is used primarily as a scenario analysis tool to evaluate market response under alternative regulation scenarios. Current research activities related to CARBITS include updating it with vehicle choice models that have been estimated on more recent survey data, expanding it to address the important emerging market for hybrid electric vehicles, adding capabilities for it to be systematically recalibrated using annual data on vehicle registrations or sales, adding a module to it to address vehicle scrappage rates, and technical improvements to address issues related to model runtime requirements and statistical noise levels. Mahmassani assisted by performing data analysis, model specification, model estimation, and model validation.

P02-4

Jacob Teter, TTP
The Role of Policy in the Evolution of Chinese Rural Vehicles
Advisor: Dan Sperling

Jacob Teter’s research focuses on how Chinese government policy since 2004 has driven changes in the Chinese rural vehicle (CRV) industry, and in the usage, regulation, and demand for these vehicles. He is also investigating the effects of macro-level national fiscal policies aimed at addressing socioeconomic inequities between rural/inland and urban/coastal China, which have indirectly pumped up CRV demand by raising the disposable income of rural residents. Further, he plans to describe and analyze the attempt by the top CRV companies to climb the quality chain toward production of trucks, SUVS, pickups and private cars. The growth of automobile use in China has significant air pollution and climate change implications for the globe, and is the subject of significant interest and analysis here in the United States. Teter hopes to evaluate current and potential future environmental and energy impacts under various policy regimes and market projections.

P01-1

Anthony Eggert, TTP
Alternative Fuel and Advanced Vehicle Innovation Systems and Diffusion Analysis
Advisor: Dan Sperling

The objectives of this project are to use innovation systems and diffusion analysis to evaluate the major technical, economic, business and policy factors associated with transitioning the transportation sector away from petroleum and toward biofuels, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. By focusing on the major actors and stakeholders involved in the development and diffusion of new technologies, innovation systems can help illuminate potential barriers and opportunities that might not be evident from simple technical or economic analysis. This project will also provide information about current funding and guidance of alternative fuel and vehicle R & D, perceived status of alternative fuel production and vehicle technologies, and policies that might influence the development and diffusion of these technologies.

P01-2

Catherine Emond, TTP
Development of an Output Interface for a Transportation/Land Use Forecast Model
Advisor: Susan Handy

This project is helping to develop the output interface for PECAS, an integrated California transportation/land use forecast model based on economic activity allocation theory. It is being jointly developed by the University of Calgary and the UC Davis Information Center for the Environment (ICE). Emond's focus is on usability issues concerning the output interface, and how to effectively use visual representations of the data to support exploration, analysis, synthesis and presentation of scenario forecast data by policy analysts.

P01-3

Ben Sharpe, CEE
Advanced Technologies for Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Advisor: Dan Sperling

This project proposes to design a heavy-duty hybrid electric vehicle system using a microturbine combined cycle (MTCC) power generation unit (with Brayton topping cycle and Rankine bottoming cycle) coupled with a hybrid electric drivetrain in a series configuration. The Rankine bottoming cycle will use exhaust gases from the microturbine to power another small turbine that produces additional electricity. The combined electrical output from the two cycles will be enough to meet the power demands of the truck and maintain the batteries at a state-of-charge that is greater than 40 percent. The components for this project exist and are commercially available; the innovation comes from using combined cycle technology for a previously overlooked application. Heavy-duty hybrids have the potential to curb diesel fuel consumption and reduce emissions. This vehicle system would be the first of its kind and could potentially revolutionize the trucking and automobile industries.

P01-4

Jie (Jesse) Zheng, CEE
Consumer and Expert Attitudes Toward Fuel Economy Policies
Advisor: Dan Sperling

The major objectives of this work were to better understand how consumers consider fuel economy when purchasing a vehicle, especially in the face of rising of gas prices, and to gauge their preferences for fuel economy-related transportation policies. The study involved informal interviews with recent car buyers and a survey of experts’ opinions and attitudes toward fuel economy and greenhouse gas-related transportation policies. Among the interesting findings are the following: Although consumers report increasing concern about fuel economy due to rising fuel prices, their lifestyle and purchase actions are inconsistent. Most experts surveyed think that the U.S. should act today to reduce GHG, even if no one else in the world acts.